Black Sea region consulting firm SovEcon increased its 2022 Russian wheat production estimate to a record 87.4 MMT on excellent crop conditions and good inputs availability. The firm expects the pre-harvest winter wheat area to hit a record 17.0 million hectares. Crops in key growing regions look good and there was below-average winter kill.
The firm increased its 2022-23 Russian wheat export forecast to 41.0 MMT from 33.9 MMT this year, assuming no western sanctions on food exports or escalation of the Russian war. While the Russian government will likely set export quotas for the second half of 2022-23, SovEcon expects them to be close to export potential.